Evaluating the Effectiveness of the CIR
Objective 2. Producing Influential Information
Another important form of data needed to evaluate the CIR is electoral outcome data. Once there is a sufficiently large sample of initiative elections with the CIR, the CIR panels should begin to show clear evidence of their influence on elections. Effective panels would produce the following results:
- Existing empirical models of voter choice can predict most electoral outcomes, and the introduction of panels should have two effects on these models: the models should become less predictive to the extent that CIR panel judgments cross party-lines or deviate from conventional public opinion; also, the addition of panel judgments to these models should improve their predictiveness.
- Beyond this general effect, the CIR panel process should prove to be an effective mechanism for bringing an initiative to victory or defeat. Specifically, when a clear majority of panelists favor an initiative, its chances of winning should increase, even if its proponents are outspent by the measure’s opponents. The reverse should also be true when panelists oppose an initiative.
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